Estimating acceptance chances using a prediction market

Utilize the wisdom of crowds for admission-related predictions

What are prediction markets?

Predictions markets enable individuals to wager money (in this case, play money) on the outcome of future events. This process compiles the collective opinions of all participants. But, do they really work? Surprisingly, yes!

Manifold, the leading prediction market platform, has found that its predictions are, on average, within 4 percentage points of the actual probability.

Help others by making your prediction

The links will direct you to Manifold Markets, the largest prediction market platform.

Start Your Own Market

You can create your own prediction markets on any subject. Consider these suggestions:

Go to Manifold Markets and Start Predicting!

Is it free?

Yes! Manifold Markets uses play money currency called mana. You receive a few hundred mana when you create an account. However, if you are a successful predictor, you can use the mana to make a real donation to a charity of your choice.

Do I need to use my real name?

Not at all! Simply choose a nickname and share as much or as little personal information as you wish.